The Debates

I never did say anything about the debates. The reason being that the debates never said anything to me. Nobody was a runaway winner and whoever you were pulling for probably looked better to you. So, there it is, my complete analysis of all the debates.

Racing the Race

I truly believe that this election, only hours away, will come down to one thing, and it is very sad indeed. I know it shouldn’t affect an election with such great importance to the future of our country (everyone keeps saying that as if every election isn’t important), but I believe it will. That one thing, it, is race. With African Americans accounting for roughly 13 to 14 percent of the population and with 10% of all voters saying they won’t vote for a black man, what is Obama’s true statistical chance at winning? Let’s assume that we have the highest recorded voter turnout in history, 65%. And let’s say that 70% of blacks of voting age turn up at the polls. This means that the “black vote” will account for roughly 15% of the overall vote, a four percent jump from four years ago. And, if the polls are correct, we may as well give Senator Obama all of that 15% statistically speaking. Well, that should put Obama up by five percent overall and into the White House. However, roughly 35% of this country’s population resides in the, historically racist, south. I’m not saying that everyone in the south is racist, but denying that it still exists is pure ignorance. Always remember the first step is admitting the problem. With McCain leading 51% to 44% among white voters, I believe that many states currently polling slightly to Obama will be swayed by this very thing. States like Florida, North Carolina, and even Virginia will move into the “red” column. I also believe Colorado and Nevada, despite being a light blue color currently, will be painted red come tomorrow night. I even believe that Ohio may fall into the red, giving John McCain 274 electoral votes and Barack Obama 264. Not all of this is necessarily fueled by race, but I do believe, if this scenario unfolds, the election will be had by John McCain because he is more susceptible to sun burns than is Barack Obama, and that, my friends, is wrong.

The numbers herein are based on US Census Bureau Data and the last Gallup Poll before Election Day.